2014 House price predictions

A poll of BBC pundits on 31 March 2014 produced house price rise predictions across the UK.

These fuel tentative grounds that the property cycle is turning just a little bit:

• Ray Boulger: 8% rise
• Henry Pryor: 5% rise
• Ed Stansfield: 4% to 5% rise
• Miles Shipside: 6% to 8% rise
• Peter Bolton King (Rics): 8% rise
• Martin Ellis: 4% to 8% rise
(Source BBC)

These predicted rises look bright, but the figures obscure a fall from November 2007 to February 2009 that the country has barely yet risen above.

And these are of course blanket predictions UK-wide, and skewed by some heated sales in the high-end London property market. I did quote below the often repeated dictum that when property prices fall it is the lower priced properties that go first, and when prices rise, it is the higher value properties that gain first. Logic dictates that this must be led by the highest priced properties in the most expensive areas. Hello London!

Yet Wales as a whole has seen gentle unbroken growth since June 2013, and this is encouraging after a flat graph since 2009. See below:

LR House Price Index Wales 2008 - 2014
(Source: Land Registry)

So only a brave soul would predict the future, yet there appears to be cautions optimism that it may be a good time to buy property for those who can.

Mike